¿Hay plata para la paz?

212
Visita del Presidente Duque, Jean Arnault y Eamon Gilmore al ETCR de Pondores, La Guajira. Foto ONU.

A casi dos años de la firma del acuerdo de paz, ya hay un déficit de cuatro billones de pesos para las estrategias, planes y programas de la implementación

Redacción política

¿El gobierno Duque hará o no trizas el acuerdo? Es la pregunta que se hacen por estos días los miembros de la bancada de la paz del Congreso de la República, los congresistas de la oposición en las comisiones económicas, y los habitantes de los territorios que esperan verse impactados positivamente por las inversiones que traen consigo los dividendos de la paz.

El Plan Marco de Implementación emitido por el gobierno pasado y su Consejo de Política Económica, Fiscal y Social, en el documento Conpes 3932 trazó los instrumentos de planeación, programación y seguimiento a políticas públicas del orden nacional y territorial en torno a los acuerdos de paz.

Allí quedaron implícitos los recursos destinados para el posconflicto cuantificados en 142 billones de pesos. La ejecución en el tiempo quedó prevista para quince años con un promedio de inversión anual de ocho billones. Igualmente se plasmó una hoja de ruta que va desde la ejecución de los planes y programas establecidos en el acuerdo de paz, y los que surgirán a partir de la plena implementación legislativa del acuerdo.

Conpes

El Conpes deja una puerta abierta, pues las destinaciones de los recursos no son específicos, es decir, no se tiene previsto lo que puede costarle al Estado el desarrollo de cada uno de los puntos del acuerdo. Lo cierto es que tales montos no son con destino a los excombatientes como lo señalaban en campaña los voceros del Centro Democrático. De hecho, los cálculos más optimistas señalan que la plena reincorporación económica y social de los miembros de las FARC-EP, puede costar tres billones de pesos. Los demás recursos servirán para la rehabilitación y estabilidad de los territorios en conflicto principalmente.

En el más reciente estudio de la Contraloría, al respecto, se estima que durante la vigencia de 2017, a pesar de que el gobierno pasado no expidió el componente de paz en el Plan Plurianual de Inversiones, este “ejecutó recursos asociados al Acuerdo Final del orden de $6,9 billones según el Marco Fiscal de Mediano Plazo 2018 y registró 96 proyectos de inversión con marcación de posconflicto. Sin embargo, la Contraloría estima que sólo $4,9 billones se pueden aplicar al Acuerdo de Paz, toda vez que el uso de los recursos provenientes del Sistema General de Participaciones y recursos propios de las entidades territoriales no han tenido ninguna modificación desde la aprobación del Acuerdo”.

Es decir, los recursos que deberían estar destinados a los planes previstos en el acuerdo no son recursos directos del Presupuesto o los planes plurianuales de inversión. Primer indicador de ausencia de planeación macroeconómica para la paz.

Dónde está la plata

En consecuencia, el promedio anual de inversión que demandan los acuerdos es de 8,6 billones, de los cuales el Gobierno nacional actual tendría que garantizar 7,5 billones plasmados en el presupuesto anual ya aprobado, en el Sistema General de Participaciones próximo a discutir y en el Sistema General de Regalías que se estáa discutiendo. Sin embargo, la realidad es que el ejecutivo hoy destinó tan solo 2,6 billones para la paz en 2019.

Otro asunto grave es la inexistencia de trazabilidad o seguimiento a los recursos destinados a la implementación del acuerdo, por cuanto no se han diseñado los instrumentos de planificación del gasto como los planes plurianuales de inversiones, o los proyectos de financiamiento bianuales como el de regalías. Además, no se ha dado cumplimiento al Conpes en cuestión, omitiendo la inclusión de los artículos que especifiquen el monto a la política pública que desarrolla la implementación.

“Esto ha llevado a una dispersión de los datos en innumerables entidades haciendo muy difícil el seguimiento y totalización de las inversiones. Se puede decir que existe una invisibilización de la implementación y su Plan Marco, por cuanto solamente se plantean, de manera más o menos clara, la destinación de recursos para víctimas, Agencia de Renovación del Territorio y Justicia Especial de Paz, incluyendo en este último aparte a todas las entidades del sistema integral de verdad, justicia, reparación y no repetición”, le dijo a VOZ el economista de la Universidad Nacional, Santiago Castaño.

Déficit

La petición de los rubros desagregados del presupuesto anual del país, es prioridad para los congresistas de la Comisión de Paz del Senado y de los miembros de la oposición en las comisiones económicas al ministro Carrasquilla, con el fin de determinar con exactitud a dónde llegarán los dineros anunciados por el jefe de la cartera de Hacienda, Alberto Carrasquilla. La ambigüedad en sus declaraciones, tanto en medios de comunicación como en las comisiones competentes del parlamento, respecto de los dineros para la paz indican que el Gobierno Duque quiere hacer trizas la paz desfinanciándola.

El sector más desfinanciado según el presupuesto de Carrasquilla para la siguiente vigencia es el agro. Sin las reformas estructurales que demandó el acuerdo, como el Fondo de Tierras de las que no existe una sola hectárea, la formalización de la mediana y pequeña propiedad, actualización del catastro agrario, protección de zonas de reserva y formación técnica para la producción de alimentos, son entre otras estrategias estancadas por voluntad política y dictado económico del Ministerio de Hacienda.

“Resalta sobre todo el presupuesto del sector Agricultura que en principio tenía una reducción de su presupuesto y que a pesar de las variaciones que se hicieron en el primer debate de PGN 2019, contempla un mínimo aumento entre 2018 y 2019 de $36.000 millones, teniendo en cuenta que el componente de la Reforma Rural Integral del acuerdo final, que depende en gran parte del presupuesto de este sector, representa el 85% de la inversión total de la implementación”, señala el profesor Castaño.

Sustitución voluntaria en riesgo

En el punto cuarto sobre el problema de las drogas del acuerdo final relacionado con los programas de sustitución voluntaria de cultivos ilícitos, PINS, la Contraloría señaló: “A la fecha, agosto de 2018 -el programa de sustitución de cultivos de manera voluntaria-, ha iniciado labores en 44 de los 51 municipios priorizados. Sin embargo, solo se han iniciado pagos en 37 de estos, en particular en lo concerniente a la asistencia alimentaria inmediata. El PAI es un esquema contemplado en el PNIS basado en asignaciones monetarias que buscan garantizar la transición de los cultivadores y recolectores a la legalidad y favorecer los procesos de sustitución de cultivos. En el caso de los recolectores, contempla, además, la asesoría para la búsqueda de empleo durante el primer año”. En el presupuesto de Carrasquilla no se determinaron con exactitud los montos destinados al cumplimiento de los convenidos de sustitución de cultivos.

La preocupación de los parlamentarios de las comisiones económicas es que el gobierno Duque reservó tres billones de pesos de la vigencia de 2019 para la paz. Lo grave es que la ejecución de ese presupuesto no tiene caducidad y menos rubros específicos, es dinero para ser usado de acuerdo con el interés político del ejecutivo, sin la garantía de verse reflejado en los programas de paz.

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