La inversión de capital: meta fundamental de los dueños del poder

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Trabajadora textil.

Nelson Fajardo

Según el posible programa del nuevo gobierno, “impulsará la factura electrónica, la simplificación del sistema tributario para las empresas y personas naturales, que racionalizará el gasto público; lo anterior acompañado de empleo y formación para la cultura afrodescendiente, el impulso de la economía naranja basada en la tecnología y el cálculo. Además, nos promete la digitalización de entes y procedimientos, lo cual impulsará las TIC, como el internet móvil. Esto contará con un fuerte trabajo, para elevar la conciencia sobre la riqueza en la biodiversidad, que pasa por la modernización de la institucionalidad ambiental del Estado.

Con nuevos recursos, se busca ampliar el crédito que incentive la productividad agropecuaria y activar la oferta de seguros en el campo, pasando por estimulos tributarios por 10 años, pero restringe los cambios de uso del suelo en el POT bajo una inspección pública rigurosa1. Como podemos observar, las propuestas aparentan un mar de bondades y expresan una política redistributiva que no se cumplirá, ya que un aspecto central como el aumento del IVA, lo hizo Mauricio Cárdenas y es un hecho cumplido. A esto se agrega el aumento de la edad de pensión para hombres y mujeres, la reducción del volumen de la mesada y la falsa idea de la reducción de la carga tributaria para campesinos.

Lo cierto es que don Iván, no dijo nada sobre el modelo económico, lo que permite asegurar que en esa dirección no habrá ningún cambio sustancial; y, que seguiremos apegados al actual modelo neoliberal, al servicio de las mejores tasas de ganancia; así la economía nacional siga dando visos de deterioro, tal como sucede actualmente. La tasa de crecimiento del PIB 2018, fue 3.0% y en el 2019, aumentó 3.2%. Al no tocar el modelo económico, el nuevo presidente, guardó reserva sobre la inversión pública, que indiscutiblemente va a crecer; pues es costumbre de la burguesía invertir cuando el camino está despejado. Así las cosas, vamos a tener (ver tabla):

El desempleo se aumentó a 3,2%, lo que implica que tuvo un aumento de 0.2 % con respecto al PIB de 2019. Aumento que cuanto pequeño, no plantea un desbordamiento, pero deja clara la conexión entre inversión y desempleo. Baja inversión, combinada con desempleo estructural, puede generar, en el marco de una crisis económica mundial, un desbordamiento de la sobre producción porque no es absorbida plenamente por los consumidores. Lo que sí se favorecerá fuertemente será la inversión, que como se puede observar en la Tabla No 1, pasa de 74.205 millones de pesos en 2019 a 153.500 millones pesos en 2022. Este monto en inversiones confirma los planteamientos de El Capital, tomo 1, en el sentido de que cuando las condiciones de competencia lo exigen, los capitalistas invierten, para ampliar el negocio, eso es capital constante (c). Aquí hay que medir la tasa de plusvalía, para saber con cuánta plusvalía se cuenta para iniciar el negocio.

En conclusión, Iván Duque va a gobernar para el capital; y, en eso no les quede la menor duda.

1 Duque, Iván; Propuestas, página 10, Revista Semana, Elecciones Presidenciales 2018.

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