La economía: entre el Covid-19 y la geopolítica del petróleo

3552
46461

José Ramón Llanos

El llamado Lunes catastrófico, 9 de marzo pasado, es la consecuencia de la incertidumbre creada en las principales Bolsas de los grandes centros financieros de la economía capitalista, más precisamente, el nerviosismo de los grandes inversionistas ante los efectos desvastadores del Coronavirus y las contradicciones de la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo, OPEP, más Rusia y el gran productor de petróleo, Arabia Saudita.

La disputa gira entorno a qué hacer para evitar la caída de los precios del crudo, o más exactamente, qué cantidad de petróleo disminuirle al mercado para lograr ese objetivo y especialmente determinar cuánta debe ser la disminución de la producción de cada uno de los países mayores productores, principalmente los de la OPEP.

En principio, la rápida expansión del Covid-19 introdujo súbitamente la incertidumbre en los mercados, dado el impacto de esa epidemia inicialmente en la economía china en momentos en que se respiraba una relativa tranquilidad en la economía mundial, debido al acuerdo parcial en la guerra de aranceles desatados por Donald Trump, dirigido fundamentalmente contra la economía de la potencia asiática.

El Covid-19 afectó el comercio exportador chino, este impactó negativamente la industria del país y lógicamente las importaciones de las principales materias primas compradas en occidente, por ejemplo las vendidas por Estados Unidos.

Pero el problema se complicó con un componente mental, psicológico que entró a jugar negativamente en coyuntura económica mundial: el temor a la expansión mundial de la enfermedad, el miedo al contagio inicialmente por contactos con los chinos o personas que hubieran estado en ese país, terminó afectando al turismo de manera grave. Fuentes relacionadas con esta actividad afirman que por lo menos mil aviones han dejado de circular por esta causa.

El mejor ejemplo de efecto negativo del Covid-19 sobre el turismo mundial es que la Feria Internacional de Turismo de Berlín, que debió realizarse entre el 4  y el 8 de marzo, fue suspendida. Estaban inscritas para participar 10 mil empresas de 180 países.

Hablamos solamente de un solo sector económico afectado por el Covid-19, pero prácticamente todas las actividades humanas han sido impactadas por la enfermedad.

Sin embargo, el detonante del estallido que destruyó tanto dinero el lunes catastrófico: fue el choque entre Arabia Saudita, su empresa petrolera Aramco y el gobierno de Rusia.

¿Cuál es el meollo del problema petrolero? Hasta el viernes pasado las relaciones entre Arabia Saudita y Rusia eran armónicas, pero este día Rusia no aceptó la propuesta de los árabes, segundos productores de petróleo en el ámbito mundial, de reducir la producción 1.5 millones de barriles diarios. Ante el rechazo ruso, los sauditas entonces redoblaron la producción, lo cual produjo la caída de los precios, rápidamente llegó a 35 dólares, un precio que no se veía desde la crisis de 1991, en la época de la Guerra del Golfo.  Debemos recordar que en aquella ocasión muchas empresas que utilizaban el fracking quebraron y los Estados Unidos devino el primer productor mundial.

Este rifirrafe produjo el pánico de los inversionistas con sus efectos sobre las principales Bolsas del mundo, cayeron entre un 6 y 8%, caída superior a la de la crisis del 2008. El lunes todo era incertidumbre, algunos agoreros económicos pesimistas ya hablaban de terribles consecuencias económicas a corto plazo y mediano plazo. Incluso algunos pronostican petróleo a 20 dólares.

Para que se tenga una percepción más cabal de los efectos del lunes catastrófico, mírense estas cifras: Las principales empresas ese medio día del lunes perdieron 239 mil millones de dólares. En América Latina, los países más impactados negativamente son Argentina, Brasil, Colombia y México.

Las acciones de estos países se devaluaron así: Bovespa de Brasil el 12.7% de sus acciones; Petrobras perdió el 32, 2%. La acción de Ecopetrol pasó 2.965 pesos a costar 2.345, perdió el 20, 91%, perdió 24 billones de pesos.

Una consecuencia de la caída del precio del dólar es la devaluación, lo cual afecta negativamente el 19% de las mercancías que se negocian en Colombia.

La caída del precio del petróleo le produjo una pérdida de US$ 6.308 millones a Ecopetrol. Para colmo de peras en el olmo, la epidemia causó una fuga de capitales de los países emergentes en un mes, de 30 mil millones de dólares.

Pero bastó un mensaje cordial de los rusos para que las Bolsas recobraran la calma y los grandes inversionistas otra vez miran con optimismo el panorama. En cambio, otro gallo canta en nuestro continente. Este tema será objeto de análisis en otra nota.

3552 Comentarios

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    Icing temperatures will cause numerous plants to help die, plus some
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    Plants native to wood land regions are usually happy when they get protection from the
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    crops, like member of the lettuce family
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    While this appears weird, analysis shows it will help plants grow bigger, versus not necessarily petting them at all.

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    Most flowers require with regards to a good half inch of waters per week.
    To learn just how much you need to help water,
    it can be significant in order to know how much waters the
    plants received coming from rain. As rainwater may differ greatly within a metropolis,
    avoid depend on your current weather review; instead use a rain judge to determine the amount that will fell into at your place.

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    Typically, the manure is definitely combined with wood bits to reduce
    the smell. To the serious organic, make sure that the shavings made
    use of are also natural and organic.

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    To store your current garden-fresh onions for use all through the winter plus
    prevent having them rot or mold, retail outlet
    them throughout pantyhose! Of course, pantyhose! Easily place
    the onions in to the legs of pantyhose, and, to avoid making
    them touch one an additional (which is what helps
    produce mold plus rot), spot a twist link between each onion as well as following.
    To store, hang typically the pantyhose by means of the gusset
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    If a person are planning an irrigation program for your back garden, think about a drip water sources process.
    A conventional process using sprinkler heads loses a
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    underneath the surface, which means much less
    water is wasted via evaporation.

    Use stones seeing as vegetable markers if a person want
    to keep a new natural looking motif. You possibly can write with permanent special marker
    on the even section of stones and surround your plant using
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    part of the, in the year there is a probability that your plants
    could possibly be exposed to frost. Icing temperature ranges will cause numerous plants to be able to
    die, and even some that live will not produce at the levels they might
    have otherwise.

    Tumble is a good time of the year to plant a fall veg
    garden. The moderate temps of autumn can be wonderful for cultivating fast-growing, cool-season vegetables such as kale,
    radishes and member of the lettuce family. Expanding an autumn back garden does require some
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    By looking on the seed starting packet, you will
    find out how much time that will take for your herb to be able to be mature enough to reap.
    Since plants grow more slowly in the shortened days
    of autumn, add a couple months to the time posted on the seed package.
    If the total number of days is fortyfive, make sure you flower your fall crop with least that many
    days and nights prior to the time that this first
    time of frost typically only occurs in your location.

    Create friendliness with great or yellowish foliage.
    Aesthetic vibrancy together with warmth exudes from
    gold and yellow-leaved foliage. They are particularly successful in questionable locations, presenting the
    optical illusion of mild and depth. That they organize beautifully with pink plants
    or perhaps deep dureté vegetation. Good choices
    include Caryopteris ‘Worcester Gold’, Viburnum ‘Aureum’, numerous Hostas and
    Spirea ‘Gold Flame’.

    Plant in the shade. All plants need light
    to survive, nevertheless only a few of them must brilliant the
    sun. Plants indigenous to wood land regions are happy when they have protection from the sun’s rays.

    There are several flowers that will prosper in a shady
    garden, including Hosta, Cyclamen, Foxglove, Helleborus, Japanese Anemone, and even Ajuga.
    By growing all these, you will have a new year-round exhibit of
    color in even the shadiest connected with gardens.

    For those who have a little baby, consider wearing your own personal
    child in a back pack although you garden. Being outdoor
    is an excellent stimulating experience for a infant,
    plus that they get to spend more time with an individual. Organic gardening is usually most secure for baby, because
    right now there is no risk involving them coming across harsh or dangerous chemicals while you work.

    One of the best methods to be successful in organic farming is to plan beginning.
    The perfect laid out programs for an organic backyard, constantly make for the best successful garden. Plan what you will plant early
    on and even be absolute to have back-up vegetables all set to
    plant whenever short-lived vegetation, like member of the lettuce family
    and greens, are completed for the year.

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    Perform not necessarily be discouraged. Do not really try to regrow goblet there.
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    day. While this appears weird, homework shows it can easily help plants grow larger, versus not really
    petting these people at all.

    Here is usually a suggestion for organic and natural gardening!
    Make use of a rain assess. Most crops require with regards
    to a good inch of drinking water per week. To
    learn precisely how much you need to help water, it can be
    crucial to help know how much waters the plants
    received by rain. As rain fall may differ greatly within a town, may be dependent on your
    own personal weather report; instead employ a rain judge to determine the
    amount of which chop down on your area.

    Many horse farms will certainly give you their pony
    manure for free if you question. Some may even transport this to your front door for some sort of small fee.
    Horse manure is abundant in vitamins and vitamins and minerals that plants demand.

    Generally, the manure will be mixed up with wood shavings to reduce the
    smell. To the serious organic, make confident that this bits made
    use of are also natural.

    In case your life is difficult, horticulture cannot be suggested enough.
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    It can also the way in order to add some beauty together with peace to your property by adjoining it with lovely plant life.

    Read about to find out exactly how to start the house garden today.

    To store your current garden-fresh onions for make use of through
    the winter plus prevent getting rot or mold, retail outlet them within pantyhose!

    Indeed, pantyhose! Easily place the onions directly into the legs of pantyhose, and, to avoid letting them effect one a further (which is exactly what helps create
    mold plus rot), place a twist wrap involving each onion and
    the following. To store, hang often the pantyhose by simply the gusset in a good cool dried place and
    cut off as well as pop a hole inside the pantyhose to grab a onion when a person need it.

    If a person are planning an water sources process for your yard, consider a drip irrigation process.
    A conventional process using sprinkler heads will lose a good good deal water by means of evaporation. Nonetheless a trickle system irrigates your back garden by simply a constant gradual
    drip of water underneath the surface, which means less
    water is wasted through evaporation.

    Use stones while herb markers if you want to keep a natural looking motif.

    You can write with permanent powerful marker on the level section of stones plus encompass your plant using them.
    Like that you is going to be ready to tell which kind
    of plants you currently have without having the
    ugly white mark.

    Consider developing crops that are easy to store or
    store by themselves. If handled adequately and gently, given the right amount of
    time and energy to treatment, garlic, onions, special carrots,
    squash, dry beans, or perhaps shallots will keep to get a very long time within a good nice, dry location. No canning or getting stuck required.

    This can ensure acquiring fresh vegetables from the yard all winter long.

    Pay out attention to the conditions in your garden.
    As soon as it is early, or even later, in the period there is the chance that your plants might be exposed to frost.
    Cold temperature will cause a lot of plants for you to die, in addition to some that live is
    not going to produce at the degree they’d have otherwise.

    Slide is a superb time of the particular year to plant an autumn plant garden. The gentle
    temps of autumn are usually amazing for cultivating fast-growing, cool-season vegetables such seeing that greens, radishes and lettuce.
    Rising an autumn garden plants does indeed require some arranging when you need to harvesting your greens crop in advance of the first frost.
    By means of looking on the seed starting packet, you will locate out the length of time that usually takes for your herb to help be mature enough to reap.
    Since plants grow slower in the shortened days and nights of drop, add a pair of weeks to the time listed on the seed
    packet. If the total number of times is fortyfive,
    make sure you grow your fall crop at least that many days and nights prior to
    the time that this first time of svale typically only occurs
    in your area.

    Create ambiance with great or yellow hue foliage. Visual vibrancy plus
    warmth provides from gold and yellow-leaved foliage. These are particularly successful in sketchy locations, giving
    the picture of light and depth. They will put together wonderfully with violet bouquets or perhaps deep bronze appearance.
    Good choices include Caryopteris ‘Worcester Gold’, Viburnum ‘Aureum’, numerous Hostas and Spirea
    ‘Gold Flame’.

    Plant within the shade. All plants need light to survive, nevertheless only some of them need to brilliant sunlight.
    Plants indigenous to woodland regions are happy when they
    find protection from the sun’s rays. There are many plants
    that will survive in a sketchy yard, including Hosta, Cyclamen, Foxglove, Helleborus, Japanese
    Anemone, plus Ajuga. By planting these, you will have a good year-round screen of
    colour in the actual shadiest regarding gardens.

    If you have a young baby, consider sporting the child in a rucksack when you garden. Being outside
    the house is a great stimulating experience intended for a great infant, plus these people
    get to spend more time with you. Organic gardening is most trusted for
    baby, since there is no risk of them suffering from harsh or
    maybe dangerous substances while anyone work.

    One of typically the best approaches to be successful on organic growing plants is to
    plan beginning. The perfect laid out plans for an organic backyard, often make for the most successful garden. Plan what will
    you plant early on together with be certain to have back-up vegetables ready
    to plant any time short-lived crops, like member of the lettuce family and spinach, are done for the year.

    Compliment the areas of your yard in which grass will not grow.

    Carry out not be discouraged. Perform not necessarily try to regrow glass there.
    Go ahead and take this possibility to adjust your ground
    cover a far more natural choice. Look to get an issue that is low-maintenance, and put anywhere grass is struggling to help
    thrive.

    One strange yet apparently beneficial tip intended for growing organic plants, should be to lightly remember to brush your
    vegetation with your current fingers or a piece
    of cardboard 1-2 times each day. While this appears odd, research shows it can help plants increase larger, versus
    not really pampering them at all.

    Here can be a suggestion for organic gardening!
    Make use of a rain gauge. Most plant life require about an inches of liquid
    per week. To find out precisely how much you need to be able to water, its important for you to
    know how much liquid the plants received via rain. As rain fall may
    differ greatly inside of a city, may count on the weather survey; instead work with a rain measure to
    help determine the amount that will droped in your position.

    Many equine farms will definitely give you their
    pony manure for free in the event that you request. Some can even transport the idea in order
    to your front door for a good small fee. Horse manure is normally rich in vitamins and nutrients that plants hunger for.
    Usually, the manure is usually blended with wood shavings in order to reduce the smell.
    To the serious organic, make confident that this shavings made use of are also natural
    and organic.

    In the event your life is demanding, garden cannot be advised enough.
    When you have observed by reading through this short article, gardening is an uncomplicated
    pastime as well like a great strain reliever. So, what explanation accomplish you have in not commencing?
    Apply the tips in this article nowadays to produce a excellent garden and to help
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  5. Gardening is a great way to escape the stress associated with everyday life
    by working together with your hands as well as
    becoming in touch with nature. It’s also a good way in order to add some beauty together with peace to your residence by encircling it together with lovely crops.
    Read with to find out the way to start the house back garden today.

    To store the garden-fresh onions for usage during the winter in addition to stay away from getting rot or perhaps mold, shop them throughout pantyhose!

    Sure, pantyhose! Merely place the onions straight into the legs of pantyhose,
    and, to avoid allowing them feel one a further (which is just what
    helps generate mold and rot), area a twist link involving each onion along with the next.
    To store, hang the pantyhose by simply the gusset in the cool dried out place and cut off of or perhaps pop a gap inside the
    pantyhose to grab a good onion when a person need it.

    If anyone are planning an irrigation system for your lawn, take into account
    a drip irrigation system. A conventional program using sprinkler heads seems to lose
    a good whole lot water by way of evaporation. Yet , a spill process irrigates your yard by a constant gradual drip of water underneath the surface, which means a lesser amount of liquid is wasted by way of evaporation.

    Use stones as flower markers if you want to keep a natural looking motif.
    You can write with permanent secret marker on the washboard aspect of stones plus encompass
    your plant having them. Like that you can be ready to notify which
    kind of plants you include without having an unsightly white mark.

    Try growing crops that are easy to store or store on their own. If handled adequately
    plus gently, given the ideal amount of time and energy to treatment, garlic, onions, lovely carrots, squash, dry coffee beans, or even shallots will
    keep for any very long time around some sort of great,
    dry spot. No canning or icing required. This will likely ensure possessing fresh
    vegetables in the backyard all winter long.

    Shell out attention to the temperatures in your back garden.
    When it is early, or maybe past due, in the time of year there is
    some sort of likelihood that your plants might be exposed to frost.
    Holding temperatures will cause quite a few plants to help die, in addition to some
    that live are not going to produce at the levels they’d have otherwise.

    Slip is a good time of the year to plant an autumn plant garden.
    The gentle temperature of autumn happen to be fantastic for cultivating fast-growing, cool-season vegetables such
    seeing as green spinach, radishes and lettuce. Growing an autumn back
    garden does indeed require some arranging while you need to harvesting your
    greens crop before the first frost. By means of looking
    on the seeds packet, you will come across out the time the idea
    requires for your vegetable to help be mature enough to harvest.
    Since plants grow more slowly in the shortened
    nights of tumble, add a pair of weeks towards the time
    shown on the seed packet. If the total amount of days is fortyfive, make sure you seed your fall crop on least that
    many nights prior to the time that often the first day of ice
    typically occurs in your caratteristico.

    Create ambiance with gold or yellow hue foliage. Aesthetic vibrancy in addition to warmth exudes from glowing and
    yellow-leaved foliage. These are particularly successful in shady locations, giving the illusion of gentle
    and depth. That they synchronize superbly with crimson blooms or even deep bronze
    plants. Good choices include Caryopteris ‘Worcester Gold’, Viburnum ‘Aureum’, several Hostas and Spirea
    ‘Gold Flame’.

    Plant inside the shade. All plants need light to survive, although not every of them need to
    have brilliant the sun. Plants local to woodland parts are usually happy when they find protection from the sun’s rays.
    There are several flowers that will succeed in a sketchy back garden, including Hosta, Couleur, Foxglove,
    Helleborus, Japanese Anemone, plus Ajuga. By
    seeding all these, you will have a new year-round show of coloration in the actual shadiest involving gardens.

    For those who have a small baby, consider putting on your own child
    in a rucksack although you garden. Being outside is a great stimulating experience with regard to a
    infant, plus many people get to spend more time with a person. Organic gardening is definitely most dependable for baby, like
    there is no risk regarding them encountering harsh or maybe dangerous compounds while anyone work.

    One of often the best ways to be successful at organic growing plants is to plan earlier.
    The very best laid out strategies for an organic lawn, constantly make for the best successful garden. Plan what will you plant early on plus be guaranteed to have back-up fresh vegetables prepared to plant whenever short-lived vegetation, like lettuce
    and kale, are performed for the year.

    Encouragement the areas of your own yard just where
    grass will certainly not grow. Carry out not really be discouraged.
    Perform certainly not try to regrow wine glass there.
    Go ahead in addition to take this possiblity to modify your
    ground cover an even more natural choice. Look for something
    that is low-maintenance, together with put everywhere grass will be struggling to be able to thrive.

    1 unusual nevertheless apparently beneficial tip regarding growing natural and organic plants, is always to lightly clean your plant life with
    your own fingers or a little bit of cardboard 1-2
    times a day. While this appears unusual, exploration shows it can help
    plants grow larger sized, versus definitely not pampering them at all.

    Here is definitely a word of advice for natural and organic gardening!
    Utilize a rain gauge. Most crops require concerning the half inch of drinking water per week.
    To know just how much you need to be able to water,
    it truly is critical for you to know how much normal water the plants received via rain. As rain will
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