La crisis de la Unión Europea será la crisis del modelo alemán

98
Angela Merkel.

Gunter Pohl*

La imperialista Alemania se encuentra en una situación nueva. A fines del año pasado la canciller Ángela Merkel renunció a la presidencia del partido que lideraba durante muchos años cuando tomó el mando de la Unión Demócrata Cristiana (CDU) en el año 2000, después de la derrota de Helmut Kohl en las elecciones de 1998. Luego ella ganó las elecciones de 2005, 2009, 2013 y 2017.

La formación de un Gobierno en 2017 resultó ser complicada. La política de puertas abiertas para 900.000 refugiados de la guerra imperialista contra el Gobierno sirio y de otras regiones del Oriente Medio y de África, devastadas por las guerras imperialistas, en 2015, facilitó que la “Alternativa para Alemania” entrara al Bundestag y a todos los parlamentos regionales. Finalmente, el Partido Socialdemócrata de Alemania (SPD) aceptó renovar la coalición con la CDU (ver artículo en VOZ, 11 de julio, 2018).

La derecha de su partido presionó a que Ángela Merkel dejase su puesto. Desde el 7 de diciembre de 2018 la nueva jefa de la CDU se llama Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, antes Secretaria General del partido bajo Merkel a cuya ala partidaria pertenece. Kramp-Karrenbauer ganó la presidencia en el congreso extraordinario con un margen pequeño frente al candidato del ala derecha, Friedrich Merz, representante del grupo más cercano al capital dentro de la CDU.

A la vez Ángela Merkel anunció que en las elecciones de 2021 ya no será candidata. Frente a la lógica de la misma Merkel de que el o la canciller tiene que ser también presidente del partido, es probable que no concluirá su mandato. Su sucesora en el partido -siguiendo esta lógica- será la candidata en las elecciones generales en 2021 o en elecciones anticipadas que pueden producirse en un momento oportuno para ella.

Los chalecos amarillos y la política alemana

En estas circunstancias de un futuro no definido, el liderazgo del imperialismo alemán dentro de la Unión Europea (UE) correría peligro, tomando en cuenta que desde el año 2017 Emmanuel Macron aparenta ser el joven presidente que supuestamente reformará la UE. Correría peligro -si no fuera por las protestas masivas de los “Gilets Jaunes”, chalecos amarillos, contra la estrella brillante en el oscuro firmamento europeo. Casual o no, los chalecos amarillos fueron creados por patrones del sector camionero y son liderados mayoritariamente por gente de la derecha francesa; y son útiles para los que bregan por el dominio alemán, mientras Macron lucha por su sobrevivencia.

Es verdad que Alemania, la potencia económica de la región, sigue siendo la locomotora dentro de la UE, pero los vagones que arrastra están cargados de problemas de mucho peso. Es más: algunos frenan, en vez de empujar.

La crisis de la UE

La Unión Europea obviamente está en la mayor crisis de su historia. Frente al “Brexit” no tiene una idea mejor que llamar a un nuevo referendo, esperando un resultado mejor. Los medios alemanes son los que más abogan por una segunda votación. Es comprensible que el temor de las consecuencias de una salida británica de la Unión es más grande en Alemania que en Gran Bretaña -se trata de la sobrevivencia del modelo del éxito alemán. La instalación de una moneda única fue el arma de destrucción masiva contra las economías periféricas, dado que al perder éstas la posibilidad de devaluar sus monedas en situaciones de crisis, los estados miembros de la zona “Euro” no tenían otra opción que permitirle al capital alemán inundar los mercados autóctonos con productos germánicos. Pagados con créditos alemanes.

La salida de Gran Bretaña (con o sin acuerdo) pone en peligro primero a la Unión Europea, por el simple ejemplo de que es posible decirle “no” al dominio ajeno. Si se hicieran referendos sobre la permanencia en la UE, la mayoría de los países miembros del este de Europa y unos cuantos más del sur de Europa saldrían de la Unión. Es por esto mismo que no se hacen estos referendos.

Segundo, estará en peligro la zona del Euro. La salida de Gran Bretaña a mediano plazo se traducirá en una amenaza, en dependencia de cómo la economía británica se fortalezca después del Brexit. Probable es un reforzamiento de relaciones económicas con Estados Unidos. De salir ileso del Brexit, el ejemplo de Gran Bretaña constituiría un plan de independencia del Euro y una amenaza para el Euro –y para el capital y el imperialismo alemán.

El reto de China y Rusia

El apoyo de EE.UU. para los países inconformes del este de Europa representa otro problema para la UE. Trump amenaza a las empresas que construyen el gasoducto de Rusia a Alemania por el Mar Báltico. El supuesto “aliado” es una competencia para la UE, en la era del decrecimiento de un capitalismo podrido que ha tratado de renovarse con la supuesta victoria sobre el socialismo. EE.UU. y UE se ven desafiados ahora por la velocidad de la evolución económica de la República Popular de China. En el campo militar es la Federación Rusa que les enseñó la tarjeta amarilla a las diversas fuerzas imperialistas europeas que fracasaron con el intento de la destrucción de Siria. Efectivamente, están contados los días exitosos de la Unión Europea.

* Jefe de la Comisión Internacional del Partido Comunista Alemán.

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