Estancamiento y decrecimiento

105
Sede principal del Banco de la República en Bogotá.

En los cálculos del Banco de la República el desempeño de la economía es aún peor de lo anunciado por el Gobierno: el crecimiento del PIB se ubicó en el 2.3% y el déficit comercial en el 4.1% del PIB

Andrés Álvarez
@RAndresAlvarez 

Las valoraciones sobre el desempeño de la economía colombiana presentadas por el Banco de la República, Banrep, difieren bastante con las presentadas por el Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, DANE, y el gobierno de Duque, aún más, develan la ineficacia de su política económica y los efectos negativos de sus decisiones en materia de paz y relaciones exteriores sobre el aparato productivo nacional.

En la presentación del DANE de hace dos semanas anunció que el PIB en el primer trimestre del año había crecido solo el 2.8%, el desempleo continuaba su escalada hacia el 10.8% y la pobreza que se había reducido de manera permanente en los últimos 10 años muestra una tendencia a crecer nuevamente en la “era Duque”. En los cálculos del Banrep, el desempeño de la economía es aún peor de lo anunciado por el Gobierno, el crecimiento del PIB se ubicó en el 2.3% y el déficit comercial en el 4.1% del PIB.

Contracción de la demanda agregada

Las cifras del Banrep, muestran que en el primer trimestre de 2019 la demanda agregada se contrajo, debido a la caída en la inversión, las exportaciones y el gasto del gobierno, que no logró compensar el aumento del consumo final de las familias.

La caída en la inversión fue estrepitosa, cerca de -1.5, a pesar de la reducción de la renta corporativa a las empresas en la reforma tributaria de 2018 (Gráfico 1).

Por otra parte, la balanza comercial muestra déficit creciente, exportaciones de bienes y servicios han caído debido al débil crecimiento económico mundial, que tiende a agravarse con el incremento de la guerra comercial que Estados Unidos inició contra la República Popular China, y que ahora bajo el pretexto de la inmigración ilegal quiso extender a México. A la caída en las exportaciones se adiciona un mayor volumen de importaciones. (Gráfico 2).

Por otra parte, el menor gasto social gubernamental, producto de la política de austeridad, está resultando de apalancar el decrecimiento (Grafico 3).

Las explicaciones

El Gobierno intenta ocultar el estancamiento económico. Las tendencias claramente recesivas – falseando las declaraciones del gerente del Banrep- argumenta que es producto del ajuste en la política económica y que será temporal, incluso anuncia señales “inequívocas” de que en lo que resta del año el PIB mejorará, debido las entradas de Inversión Extranjera Directa, IED, los buenos resultados de la producción manufacturera y agropecuaria, además de los nuevos Tratados de Libre Comercio, TLC, con Francia e Israel.

Empero, la realidad económica es tozuda, nuevamente se evidencia que la reducción de los impuestos a los empresarios no conduce per se a que estos desarrollen nuevos proyectos productivos, amplíen la capacidad de la nación para producir mayores bienes y servicios, y que en este punto los gobiernos anteriores y el gobierno Duque nuevamente se han equivocado. Han perjudicado la capacidad de compra de las familias colombianas financiando el gasto gubernamental con impuestos a los más pobres.

También los inversionistas privados nacionales y extranjeros observan con preocupación las irresponsables acusaciones e iniciativas contra las otras ramas del poder promovidas por el presidente Duque, el senador Uribe Vélez y sus copartidarios. Observan como se ataca el proceso de paz y los organismos multilaterales que acompañan la débil implementación del Acuerdo de Paz.

En en un momento de incertidumbre y bajo crecimiento del PIB mundial, donde nuestras exportaciones mas importantes ligadas al sector minero- energético, tienden a decrecer en términos de volumen y valor, es necesario limitar la dependencia externa, mediante esquemas de promoción y protección de otros sectores generadores de divisas, así como los que solo producen para el mercado interno.

El recorte del gasto social, los anuncios de fusión de entidades del Estado y austeridad fiscal, en medio de los ataques a la justicia y el turbulento escenario mundial pueden acelerar aún más el decrecimiento económico en lo que resta del año, produciendo más desempleo y pobreza.

Frente a ello nuestra apuesta debe ser la defensa del patrimonio público que se venderá con el argumento del déficit fiscal, evitar la pretendida remodelación del Estado para proteger el empleo y el ingreso de lo servidores públicos, así como los recortes al gasto social vía austeridad fiscal.

En el horizonte de mediano plazo, está la construcción del sujeto social y político unitario que impulse un modelo de desarrollo nacional más autónomo, creador de riqueza, empleo de calidad y mayor igualdad social.

105 Comentarios

  1. I don’t even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was
    great. I do not know who you are but certainly you
    are going to a famous blogger if you are not already 😉 Cheers!

  2. Hey there! I’m at work surfing around your blog from my
    new iphone 4! Just wanted to say I love reading your blog and look forward to all your posts!

    Carry on the fantastic work!

  3. Thanks for a marvelous posting! I genuinely enjoyed reading it,
    you might be a great author.I will ensure that I bookmark your
    blog and will come back in the future. I want to encourage you to definitely continue your great job, have a nice evening!

  4. Howdy! Quick question that’s totally off topic.
    Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly?
    My web site looks weird when viewing from my iphone 4.
    I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to correct this issue.
    If you have any recommendations, please share.
    Many thanks!

  5. Greetings! I’ve been following your weblog for some
    time now and finally got the courage to go ahead and
    give you a shout out from Humble Texas! Just wanted to mention keep up the good work!

  6. I was very pleased to uncover this website.

    I need to to thank you for ones time for this particularly wonderful read!!
    I definitely enjoyed every little bit of it and i also have you book marked to see new stuff in your blog.

  7. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is needed to get set up?
    I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?
    I’m not very web savvy so I’m not 100% certain. Any suggestions
    or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thank you

  8. I’m extremely impressed with your writing skills as well as with the layout on your blog.
    Is this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself? Either way keep up the excellent quality writing, it’s rare to see a nice blog
    like this one these days.

  9. Someone essentially assist to make severely articles
    I might state. This is the first time I frequented your web page
    and to this point? I amazed with the analysis you made to make this actual post
    incredible. Excellent job!

  10. Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up.
    The text in your post seem to be running off the screen in Firefox.
    I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with browser compatibility
    but I figured I’d post to let you know. The style and design look great though!
    Hope you get the problem solved soon. Cheers

  11. Thanks for ones marvelous posting! I really
    enjoyed reading it, you may be a great author. I will make certain to bookmark your blog and may come back in the foreseeable future.
    I want to encourage one to continue your great posts, have a nice weekend!

  12. Sweet blog! I found it while surfing around on Yahoo News.
    Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News?
    I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there!
    Cheers

  13. fantastic issues altogether, you just gained a emblem new reader.
    What may you recommend about your put up
    that you made a few days in the past? Any sure?

  14. Have you ever considered publishing an e-book or
    guest authoring on other websites? I have a blog based upon on the same topics you
    discuss and would really like to have you share
    some stories/information. I know my subscribers would enjoy your
    work. If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to send me an e mail.

  15. I’m not sure where you’re getting your information, but
    good topic. I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more.
    Thanks for wonderful information I was looking for this info for my mission.

  16. hello there and thank you for your info – I’ve definitely picked up anything new from right here.
    I did however expertise some technical points using this website, since
    I experienced to reload the website lots of times
    previous to I could get it to load properly.

    I had been wondering if your hosting is OK? Not that I am complaining, but sluggish loading instances times will very frequently affect your placement in google and could damage your
    high quality score if advertising and marketing with Adwords.
    Anyway I am adding this RSS to my e-mail and can look out for a
    lot more of your respective exciting content. Make sure you update this again soon.

  17. hello!,I really like your writing very a lot! share we keep in touch more about your article on AOL?
    I need an expert on this area to solve my problem.
    Maybe that’s you! Looking ahead to look you.

  18. I don’t even know how I ended up here, but I thought
    this post was great. I do not know who you are but definitely you’re going to a famous blogger
    if you are not already 😉 Cheers!

  19. Hello, I believe your website may be having internet browser compatibility
    problems. When I take a look at your website in Safari, it looks fine
    however, when opening in IE, it has some
    overlapping issues. I just wanted to provide
    you with a quick heads up! Aside from that, great blog!

  20. Hello There. I discovered your weblog using msn.
    This is an extremely neatly written article. I’ll make sure to
    bookmark it and come back to learn extra of your helpful info.
    Thank you for the post. I’ll definitely comeback.

  21. That is really fascinating, You’re a very professional blogger.
    I’ve joined your rss feed and stay up for in the hunt for extra of your fantastic
    post. Additionally, I have shared your site in my social networks

  22. Its like you learn my mind! You seem to know a lot about this, such
    as you wrote the guide in it or something. I
    believe that you just can do with some p.c.
    to pressure the message house a little bit, however
    other than that, that is magnificent blog. A great read.
    I’ll definitely be back.

  23. I have been exploring for a bit for any high quality articles or
    blog posts in this sort of area . Exploring in Yahoo I ultimately stumbled upon this site.

    Studying this info So i’m glad to express that I’ve a very excellent uncanny feeling I
    found out just what I needed. I most for sure will make
    certain to don?t omit this site and give it a look regularly.

  24. Greetings from Florida! I’m bored to tears at work so I decided to check out your site on my iphone during
    lunch break. I love the info you present here and can’t wait to take a look when I get home.
    I’m surprised at how quick your blog loaded on my cell phone ..
    I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyways, awesome site!

  25. This is the right website for anybody who hopes to understand this topic.
    You know so much its almost tough to argue with you (not that
    I really will need to…HaHa). You definitely put a
    brand new spin on a subject which has been written about for ages.
    Excellent stuff, just great!

  26. Great post. I was checking constantly this blog and
    I’m impressed! Extremely helpful information particularly
    the last part 🙂 I care for such info a lot. I was
    seeking this particular information for a very long time.
    Thank you and good luck.

  27. My brother suggested I might like this web site. He was totally right.
    This submit actually made my day. You can not believe simply how a lot time I had spent for this info!

    Thank you!

  28. Great post. I was checking constantly this blog
    and I am impressed! Very helpful info specifically the last part :
    ) I care for such info a lot. I was looking for this particular information for a very long time.
    Thank you and best of luck.

  29. Howdy! I understand this is somewhat off-topic however I needed to ask.

    Does building a well-established website such as yours require a large amount of
    work? I am brand new to running a blog however I do write in my diary every day.
    I’d like to start a blog so I can easily share my experience and views online.
    Please let me know if you have any suggestions or tips for brand new aspiring blog owners.
    Appreciate it!

  30. Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the pictures on this blog loading?
    I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog.
    Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

  31. I got this web site from my pal who informed me concerning this web
    site and at the moment this time I am browsing this website and reading
    very informative articles at this place.

  32. hello!,I love your writing so much! proportion we be in contact more about your post on AOL?
    I need a specialist in this area to solve my problem. May be that’s you!

    Looking forward to see you.

  33. I have been browsing online more than 2 hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like yours.
    It’s pretty worth enough for me. Personally, if all web owners and bloggers made good content as you did, the net will be much more useful
    than ever before.

  34. Hello! I could have sworn I’ve been to this website before
    but after browsing through some of the post I realized it’s new to me.
    Anyways, I’m definitely glad I found it and I’ll be book-marking and checking back often!

  35. I’m really enjoying the design and layout of your blog.
    It’s a very easy on the eyes which makes it much more pleasant
    for me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire
    out a developer to create your theme? Exceptional work!

  36. Definitely believe that which you said. Your favorite justification appeared to be on the web
    the easiest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I certainly get irked
    while people consider worries that they just don’t know about.
    You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out
    the whole thing without having side effect , people can take a signal.
    Will likely be back to get more. Thanks

  37. Good day! I know this is kinda off topic however , I’d figured I’d
    ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest writing
    a blog article or vice-versa? My site goes over a lot
    of the same subjects as yours and I think we could greatly
    benefit from each other. If you are interested feel free to shoot me
    an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you!
    Fantastic blog by the way!

  38. Hi! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you
    using for this site? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve
    had issues with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform.
    I would be fantastic if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

  39. Excellent post. I used to be checking constantly this
    weblog and I am impressed! Extremely helpful information specially
    the remaining part 🙂 I deal with such information a lot.
    I used to be looking for this certain info for a
    long time. Thank you and good luck.

  40. When I originally commented I clicked the «Notify me when new comments are added»
    checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get three emails with the same comment.
    Is there any way you can remove people from that service?

    Bless you!

  41. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own blog and was curious what all is needed to get setup?

    I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?
    I’m not very internet savvy so I’m not 100% sure. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated.

    Cheers

  42. Hello there! Do you know if they make any plugins to help with
    Search Engine Optimization? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good success.
    If you know of any please share. Thank you!

  43. It is perfect time to make some plans for the future and it is time
    to be happy. I’ve read this post and if I could
    I want to suggest you few interesting things or tips.

    Maybe you can write next articles referring to this
    article. I wish to read more things about it!

  44. Greetings, I do think your site may be having browser compatibility issues.
    When I take a look at your site in Safari, it looks fine however when opening in I.E., it’s got some overlapping issues.
    I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Apart from that, excellent site!

  45. Thank you for another excellent article. Where
    else may anyone get that type of information in such an ideal method of writing?
    I’ve a presentation next week, and I am at the look for
    such info.

  46. Have you ever considered about including a little
    bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is valuable and all.

    But just imagine if you added some great pictures or videos
    to give your posts more, «pop»! Your content is excellent but with pics and clips,
    this site could definitely be one of the best in its niche.
    Amazing blog!

  47. Howdy, There’s no doubt that your website could possibly be having internet browser compatibility issues.
    Whenever I take a look at your website in Safari, it looks fine however,
    when opening in IE, it’s got some overlapping issues.
    I merely wanted to give you a quick heads up! Apart
    from that, great site!

  48. Generally I do not learn article on blogs, however I
    wish to say that this write-up very pressured me to check out and do it!
    Your writing style has been amazed me. Thank you, quite nice article.

  49. hi!,I love your writing so much! percentage we keep in touch more
    about your post on AOL? I require a specialist on this area to solve my problem.

    Maybe that is you! Having a look ahead to peer you.

  50. You actually make it seem so easy along with your presentation but I in finding this matter to be really something which I feel I might by no means understand.
    It seems too complicated and very large for me.
    I am taking a look ahead on your subsequent post, I’ll try to
    get the cling of it!

  51. I really love your website.. Great colors & theme. Did you create this amazing site yourself?
    Please reply back as I’m looking to create my own personal website and would love to find out
    where you got this from or what the theme is called. Appreciate it!

  52. When I originally commented I clicked the «Notify me when new comments are added» checkbox and
    now each time a comment is added I get three emails with the same comment.
    Is there any way you can remove me from that service?
    Many thanks!

  53. I’m not sure exactly why but this weblog is loading incredibly slow for me.
    Is anyone else having this issue or is it a problem
    on my end? I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.

  54. Neat blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere?
    A design like yours with a few simple adjustements would really make
    my blog stand out. Please let me know where you got your design. Kudos

  55. Hola! I’ve been reading your web site for a while now and finally got the courage to go ahead and
    give you a shout out from Huffman Texas!
    Just wanted to say keep up the fantastic job!

  56. Wow that was unusual. I just wrote an incredibly long comment but after I clicked submit
    my comment didn’t show up. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again.
    Anyhow, just wanted to say superb blog!

  57. Hello would you mind letting me know which hosting company you’re using?
    I’ve loaded your blog in 3 completely different
    internet browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot quicker then most.
    Can you suggest a good internet hosting provider at a fair price?
    Many thanks, I appreciate it!

  58. I don’t know if it’s just me or if everybody else encountering problems with your blog.
    It appears like some of the written text on your posts are running off the screen. Can someone
    else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening
    to them as well? This could be a issue with my web browser
    because I’ve had this happen before. Many thanks

  59. Hey there! Someone in my Facebook group shared this site with us so
    I came to give it a look. I’m definitely loving the information. I’m bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers!
    Fantastic blog and great style and design.

  60. Hello there! This is my first visit to your blog!
    We are a collection of volunteers and starting a new project in a community in the same
    niche. Your blog provided us valuable information to work on. You have
    done a wonderful job!

Responder a Markus Cancelar respuesta

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

*