Elecciones y futuro económico ¿Se va a discutir el modelo?

148

Carlos Fernández*

El reciente artículo en El Tiempo, el actual miembro de la Junta Directiva del Banco de la República, José Antonio Ocampo, exministro de Hacienda y Agricultura, exdirector de la Cepal, exdirector de Fedesarrollo, etc., decía de manera contundente que «el petróleo no es el futuro». La afirmación, hecha en un momento en que repuntan los precios del petróleo en un pequeño auge que no se sabe cuánto puede durar, no es sólo un pronunciamiento sobre la necesidad de orientar la política económica hacia otros sectores diferentes al de minería e hidrocarburos sino que apunta, también, a decirle al gobernante que surja de las próximas elecciones presidenciales que es necesario un viraje a fondo en materia de enfoque sobre el futuro del desarrollo económico del país, más allá de los cuatro años del período presidencial.

Se trata de modificar el modelo de desarrollo nacional, dándole prioridad a los sectores auténticamente productivos, los que generan más valor y no aquellos que sólo implican una labor extractivista que agota los recursos no renovables y que genera contradicciones con las necesidades básicas de la gente y con el medio ambiente. Cambio de modelo que implica, además, apostar por la disminución de la inequidad y la desigualdad respecto a la participación de los sectores más pobres en el producto y el ingreso nacionales.

Elección presidencial y política económica

En la campaña electoral, que ya entró en tierra derecha, como decían los comentaristas hípicos, empiezan a asomar las promesas en las que abundan ofrecimientos desmedidos, sin asidero en la realidad («construiré un millón de casas, haré las carreteras que necesita el país, generaré dos millones de empleos, disminuiré la pobreza en un diez por ciento»), sin que tales promesas estén soportadas por análisis rigurosos sobre las condiciones objetivas, nacionales e internacionales, en que se desenvuelve la economía nacional. Veamos.

Según las cuentas nacionales, entre enero y septiembre de 2017, el valor agregado de la industria manufacturera había decrecido en 1,2% respecto al mismo período de 2016. Se continuaba así un proceso de pérdida de importancia de la industria en el conjunto de la economía, producto de una errática política que privilegiaba la extracción de recursos frente a su transformación, en lo que se denominó la reprimarización de la economía. Datos más recientes, extraídos de la Encuesta Mensual Manufacturera (EMM), muestran que, entre noviembre de 2016 y noviembre de 2017, hubo un leve repunte de la producción industrial, motivado en gran medida por la refinación de petróleo, pero que no puede ocultar el hecho de que 24 de los 39 subsectores en que se clasifica la industria manufacturera del país presentan decrecimientos en su producción. Además, entre enero y noviembre de 2017, la Encuesta muestra un decrecimiento real de la producción de 0,7% respecto al período enero-noviembre de 2016. Asimismo, se presenta disminución real en las ventas de 0,4% y, en el empleo industrial, de 0,8%. Un cambio de modelo económico implica enormes esfuerzos y recursos para lograr posicionar a la industria manufacturera en el lugar de privilegio que amerita dentro de la producción nacional.

La agricultura y la innovación

El panorama del sector agropecuario es diferente. Entre enero y septiembre, el valor agregado en el sector creció 6,3% respecto al mismo período de 2016, en lo cual incidió, indudablemente, el repunte de la producción de café ya comentado en estas páginas, el nuevo clima surgido de los acuerdos de paz suscritos con las FARC y el relativo éxito del programa oficial Colombia Siembra. Pero los esfuerzos de esta política han estado orientados por una concepción del desarrollo agrario que privilegia el agronegocio sobre el desarrollo de la economía campesina. La falta de voluntad para cumplir los acuerdos relativos al punto primero de los acuerdos sobre Reforma Rural Integral, la expedición de la ley sobre las Zonas de Interés para el Desarrollo Rural, Económico y Social (Zidres) -que permite la acumulación de baldíos por los capitalistas-, los esfuerzos para eliminar del lenguaje oficial hasta la palabra campesino (como se vio en el Censo Agropecuario y, ahora, en el Censo de Población) dan cuenta de este sesgo anti-popular y anti-campesino de la política oficial.

Una política estatal que privilegie los sectores auténticamente productivos como la agricultura y la industria pasa por un enorme esfuerzo de generación, apropiación y aplicación de conocimiento científico, que tenga por base el fortalecimiento de la universidad pública, el aprovechamiento y adaptación del conocimiento generado en otras latitudes y la creación de capacidades para generar conocimiento científico propio.

La tarea es grande y ardua y no son los candidatos de la derecha los más capacitados para realizarla.

* Economista. 

148 Comentarios

  1. Hello There. I found your weblog the usage of msn. That is
    an extremely smartly written article. I will be sure to bookmark it and come back to read extra of your helpful info.

    Thank you for the post. I will certainly return.

  2. I have been browsing online greater than three hours these
    days, yet I never found any fascinating article like yours.

    It’s lovely worth sufficient for me. In my opinion, if all web owners and bloggers made good content
    material as you probably did, the internet will be much more useful than ever before.

  3. With havin so much content do you ever run into any issues
    of plagorism or copyright infringement? My website has a lot of completely unique content I’ve either created myself
    or outsourced but it appears a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my permission. Do you know
    any solutions to help prevent content from being stolen?
    I’d certainly appreciate it.

  4. Have you ever considered creating an ebook or guest authoring on other websites?

    I have a blog based on the same subjects you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my visitors would value your work.
    If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an e mail.

  5. whoah this blog is excellent i really like studying your posts.
    Stay up the great work! You recognize, a lot of people are searching around for this information, you could aid
    them greatly.

  6. I am extremely impressed with your writing skills and also with the layout on your weblog.
    Is this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself?
    Either way keep up the excellent quality writing, it is rare to
    see a nice blog like this one nowadays.

  7. hi!,I love your writing very so much! proportion we be in contact extra about your article on AOL?
    I need an expert on this space to solve my problem.

    Maybe that is you! Taking a look forward to look you.

  8. Hey! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any issues with
    hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing many months of hard work due to no data backup.
    Do you have any solutions to stop hackers?

  9. I am curious to find out what blog system you’re utilizing?
    I’m having some small security problems with my latest site and I
    would like to find something more secure. Do you have any
    suggestions?

  10. You really make it appear so easy along with your presentation however I to find this topic to be actually something which I feel I might never understand.

    It sort of feels too complex and extremely vast for me. I’m having a look ahead on your next post,
    I will attempt to get the dangle of it!

  11. I’m not that much of a internet reader
    to be honest but your blogs really nice, keep it up! I’ll go ahead and bookmark your website to come
    back down the road. Many thanks

  12. Hello very cool website!! Guy .. Beautiful .. Wonderful ..

    I’ll bookmark your blog and take the feeds additionally?
    I’m glad to seek out so many useful information here in the publish,
    we’d like develop extra strategies on this regard, thanks for sharing.
    . . . . .

  13. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it
    seems as though you relied on the video to make your point.
    You clearly know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your weblog when you could be giving us something
    enlightening to read?

  14. wonderful publish, very informative. I ponder why the other
    specialists of this sector don’t notice this. You should proceed your writing.
    I am confident, you have a huge readers’ base already!

  15. Its such as you learn my thoughts! You seem to know a lot about
    this, like you wrote the e book in it or something.

    I believe that you simply can do with some p.c. to pressure
    the message house a little bit, but instead of that, that is excellent blog.
    A great read. I will definitely be back.

  16. Thanks , I’ve recently been looking for information about this topic for a long time and yours is the greatest I
    have came upon so far. However, what concerning the conclusion? Are you positive in regards to the source?

  17. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to my blog that automatically
    tweet my newest twitter updates. I’ve been looking for a
    plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this.
    Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.

  18. Good day! This is kind of off topic but I need some guidance from an established blog.

    Is it hard to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty fast.

    I’m thinking about setting up my own but I’m
    not sure where to start. Do you have any tips or suggestions?
    Many thanks

  19. Great post. I was checking constantly this blog and I am impressed!
    Very helpful info specifically the last part 🙂 I care for such information a lot.
    I was looking for this particular information for a long time.
    Thank you and best of luck.

  20. Hiya very cool web site!! Guy .. Beautiful ..

    Superb .. I’ll bookmark your web site and take the
    feeds additionally? I’m satisfied to search out so many helpful info here in the
    submit, we want work out extra techniques in this
    regard, thanks for sharing. . . . . .

  21. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto
    a friend who had been conducting a little research on this.

    And he actually bought me breakfast simply because I
    found it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!!
    But yeah, thanks for spending some time to talk about this issue here on your web site.

  22. A motivating discussion is worth comment. There’s no doubt that that
    you should write more on this subject, it may not be a taboo matter but generally people do not discuss such topics.
    To the next! Kind regards!!

  23. Please let me know if you’re looking for a article writer for your blog.
    You have some really great posts and I think I would be a good asset.
    If you ever want to take some of the load off,
    I’d love to write some material for your blog in exchange
    for a link back to mine. Please shoot me an email if interested.
    Thank you!

  24. Magnificent goods from you, man. I’ve understand your stuff previous to
    and you’re just too great. I actually like what you’ve acquired here, certainly like what you are saying and the
    way in which you say it. You make it enjoyable and you still care for to keep it sensible.

    I can’t wait to read much more from you. This is
    really a terrific site.

  25. My programmer is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP.

    I have always disliked the idea because of the costs.

    But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on numerous websites
    for about a year and am concerned about switching to another platform.
    I have heard excellent things about blogengine.net.
    Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress content into it?
    Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  26. I was suggested this website by my cousin. I’m not sure whether this post is written by
    him as nobody else know such detailed about my difficulty.
    You’re incredible! Thanks!

  27. I’m more than happy to find this web site. I wanted to thank you for ones time for this particularly wonderful read!!
    I definitely savored every little bit of it and I have you book-marked to check out new information on your blog.

  28. Howdy! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist
    with Search Engine Optimization? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for
    some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good
    success. If you know of any please share. Many thanks!

  29. I blog often and I seriously thank you for
    your content. Your article has truly peaked my interest.
    I’m going to bookmark your blog and keep checking
    for new information about once a week. I subscribed to your RSS feed as
    well.

  30. I like the valuable info you provide in your articles.
    I will bookmark your weblog and check again here frequently.
    I’m quite certain I will learn a lot of new stuff right here!
    Best of luck for the next!

  31. Thanks for a marvelous posting! I definitely enjoyed reading
    it, you could be a great author.I will always bookmark your
    blog and will often come back later in life.
    I want to encourage you to continue your great work, have a nice day!

  32. This is really fascinating, You’re an overly professional blogger.
    I have joined your rss feed and look forward to in quest of extra of your great post.

    Additionally, I’ve shared your website in my social networks

  33. I loved as much as you will receive carried out right here.
    The sketch is attractive, your authored subject matter stylish.
    nonetheless, you command get got an shakiness over that you wish be delivering the following.

    unwell unquestionably come more formerly again as exactly the
    same nearly very often inside case you shield this hike.

  34. Excellent article. Keep writing such kind of info on your site.
    Im really impressed by it.
    Hello there, You have done a great job. I’ll certainly
    digg it and for my part recommend to my friends. I am confident they will be benefited
    from this website.

  35. I would like to thank you for the efforts you’ve put in penning this blog.
    I really hope to check out the same high-grade blog posts by you in the future as
    well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has inspired
    me to get my own blog now 😉

  36. Hi just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know
    a few of the pictures aren’t loading correctly.
    I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two
    different internet browsers and both show the same results.

  37. I loved as much as you will receive carried
    out right here. The sketch is attractive, your authored
    material stylish. nonetheless, you command get bought
    an edginess over that you wish be delivering the following.
    unwell unquestionably come more formerly again as exactly the same nearly a lot
    often inside case you shield this hike.

  38. An outstanding share! I have just forwarded this onto a colleague who
    was doing a little research on this. And he in fact ordered me dinner simply
    because I stumbled upon it for him… lol.
    So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!!
    But yeah, thanx for spending time to talk about this issue here on your
    web site.

  39. Interesting blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it
    from somewhere? A theme like yours with a few simple tweeks would really make my blog shine.
    Please let me know where you got your design. With thanks

  40. Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is a really well written article.

    I’ll be sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your useful info.

    Thanks for the post. I will definitely comeback.

  41. My partner and I stumbled over here from a different web page and thought I
    should check things out. I like what I see so now i am following you.

    Look forward to going over your web page again.

  42. I am no longer certain where you’re getting your information, but great topic.
    I needs to spend a while learning much more or understanding more.
    Thank you for wonderful info I was on the lookout for
    this info for my mission.

  43. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point.
    You clearly know what youre talking about, why throw away your intelligence on just posting
    videos to your site when you could be giving us something
    informative to read?

  44. Heya i am for the first time here. I came across this board and I find It really useful & it helped me
    out much. I hope to give something back and help others like you helped me.

  45. Thanks for one’s marvelous posting! I genuinely enjoyed reading it, you happen to be a
    great author.I will make certain to bookmark your blog
    and will often come back later in life. I want to encourage you to
    definitely continue your great job, have a nice afternoon!

  46. This is really interesting, You’re an excessively skilled blogger.
    I have joined your feed and look ahead to looking for more of your excellent post.
    Additionally, I have shared your web site in my social
    networks

  47. Unquestionably believe that which you stated. Your favorite
    reason seemed to be on the web the easiest thing to be
    aware of. I say to you, I definitely get irked while people consider
    worries that they plainly do not know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top as well as defined out the whole thing without having
    side-effects , people could take a signal. Will likely be back to get more.

    Thanks

  48. Undeniably believe that which you said. Your favorite
    reason appeared to be on the internet the easiest thing to be aware of.

    I say to you, I definitely get annoyed while people think about worries that they plainly don’t know about.
    You managed to hit the nail upon the top and defined out the whole thing without having
    side effect , people can take a signal. Will likely be back to get more.
    Thanks

  49. Simply desire to say your article is as astounding.
    The clarity in your post is simply nice and i can assume
    you are an expert on this subject. Fine with your permission let me
    to grab your feed to keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and
    please keep up the rewarding work.

  50. I am not certain where you are getting your information,
    but great topic. I must spend some time learning much more or figuring out more.
    Thanks for wonderful information I was on the lookout for
    this information for my mission.

Dejar respuesta

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

*