Déficit fiscal, excusa para más impuestos

135

La semana pasada fue aprobada en primer debate en las comisiones 3 y 4 conjuntas del Senado y la Cámara, la mal llamada Ley de Financiamiento, cuyo objetivo fundamental es recaudar un supuesto faltante económico del Presupuesto General de la Nación. Un hueco fiscal de 14 billones de pesos para cumplir la meta de gasto para el año 2019 que asciende a 258 billones de pesos.

Era de esperarse que la discusión no se detuviera en analizar los pormenores de la reforma, solicitud reiterada que hiciera la oposición tanto en las reuniones de ponentes como en el desarrollo de las comisiones. Por eso la oposición Decentes presentó una reforma alternativa solamente en la idea de demostrar que la manera como gobierna la derecha contra el pueblo no es un problema de macroeconomía, sino de voluntad política para solucionar los problemas sociales. Evidentemente, el Gobierno Duque no gobierna para las mayorías sino para los poderosos de siempre.

También se presentó la ponencia de la Alianza Verde, pidiendo archivar el proyecto.  Las dos propuestas fueron hundidas por las mayorías cercanas al Gobierno, casi que de manera inmediata a su presentación, evitando su análisis concreto y negando las propuestas sin realmente discutirlas. Estas eran las facilidades del fast track tributario con el que se tramita la ley de financiamiento.

Sin duda, los afanes decembrinos, los apuros para no irse a extras y los compromisos de las bancadas con el gobierno facilitaron que el fast track nuevamente operara.

En términos concretos, con lo aprobado en las comisiones conjuntas no será posible sanear el famoso déficit presupuestal de 14 billones. Mientras la propuesta alternativa presentada por los Decentes planteaba un recaudo cercano a los 24 billones de pesos, solamente revisando algunas exenciones tributarias y haciendo cumplir las leyes existentes en materia fiscal en Colombia, la propuesta del Gobierno, sacando el IVA a los alimentos de la canasta familiar y aumentando algunos impuestos contra los trabajadores (IVA en algunos sectores, retención en la fuente, renta de personas naturales, etc.) no llega a un recaudo de 8 billones de pesos.

Resulta por lo menos curiosa la tranquilidad del Gobierno con la aprobación de su propuesta en primer debate. Uno podría pensar que su objetivo no era el recaudo de los 14 billones faltantes, con el cual chantajeaban al Congreso, planteándoles que la no aprobación de su propuesta podría generar recortes presupuestales en programas sociales, cuestión que depende absolutamente de su voluntad política. Sin embargo, poco hablan de las nuevas exenciones y beneficios tributarios que se crean para las corporaciones más grandes y poderosas del país y del mundo, pasando de 229 beneficios a 233; algunos expertos han calculado que con los nuevos beneficios el Estado dejará de recibir cerca de 10 billones de pesos.

Le corresponderá esta semana a las plenarias de la Cámara y el Senado aprobar definitivamente esta reforma tributaria. La propuesta gubernamental plantea un recaudo cercano a 8 billones de pesos dando beneficios tributarios por 10 billones; existe una propuesta alternativa que genera un recaudo de cerca de 26 billones pero que no es acogida por hacer pagar a los que tienen más. De esta manera, quedarían por resolverse algunos interrogantes: ¿Cuál es el verdadero ánimo de la reforma tributaria? ¿Generar más ingresos o darle más beneficios a los sectores económicos que más tienen? ¿Cómo va a resolver el gobierno el problema del faltante en el presupuesto? ¿Habrá recortes presupuestales o se emitirán títulos de endeudamiento? Amanecerá y veremos.

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