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Los derivados del acero y el aluminio se perdjudican con una guerra comercial.

Trump lanza al mundo a una guerra comercial. Históricamente, las guerras comerciales no han aliviado el declive de las economías capitalistas. Los conflictos comerciales terminan por conducir a guerras armadas. Las medidas de Trump, un coctel explosivo

Alberto Acevedo

En lo que propios y extraños han calificado como un brutal golpe al comercio internacional, y el prestigioso The Wall Street Journal señaló como “la mayor torpeza del actual mandatario”, el presidente Donald Trump sancionó el 8 de mayo pasado una directiva presidencial mediante la cual impuso un incremento de aranceles a los precios del acero y el aluminio que importa Estados Unidos, en una absurda medida proteccionista que actúa en contravía a las tendencias actuales del mercado, que avalan la integración regional y global.

Y aunque el gobernante había prometido, desde sus discursos de campaña, adelantar medidas proteccionistas similares, al dar un paso en esta dirección, como el anunciado este mes, lanza al mundo a una guerra comercial que no se sabe cómo va a terminar.

La disposición indica que a partir de ahora, con excepción de México y Canadá, con quienes adelanta conversaciones alrededor de la revisión de un tratado de libre comercio, a los demás países que exporten a Norteamérica acero y aluminio, se les impondrá un nuevo arancel del 25 y el 10 por ciento, respectivamente.

Sanciones recíprocas

Las reacciones, con diversos matices de contundencia, no se hicieron esperar. La Unión Europea y China rechazaron de inmediato el anuncio e indicaron que darán una respuesta “adecuada” al tamaño de las medidas impositivas de Washington. El presidente de la Comisión Europea, Jean-Claude Junker dijo que el bloque “debe tomar medidas”, y “si Estados Unidos impone aranceles punitivos, nosotros debemos responder en consonancia”. El viejo continente ya ha sugerido elevar aranceles en las importaciones de motos Harley-Davidson, los pantalones Levi’s y el Bourbon, una forma de whisky.

La primera ministra británica, Teresa May, expresó su preocupa­ción ante la posibilidad de una guerra comercial en el planeta. También Francia y Brasil expresaron su preocupación. Expertos en comercio internacional indicaron que, en América Latina, los dos mercados más afectados con los nuevos aranceles, son Argentina y México. Organismos de cooperación internacional anunciaron demandas ante la Organización Mundial de Comercio, OMC, puesto que los anuncios de Trump desconocen reglas de juego del comercio internacional aprobadas por consenso, e incluso, como el caso de Colombia, desconocen los términos de acuerdos de libre comercio suscritos en forma bilateral con Estados Unidos.

Reducción del crecimiento

Análisis más serenos de los efectos pretendidos con el alza de aranceles al acero y al aluminio, indican que la medida es inocua, y por momentos contraproducente, si se tiene en cuenta que desatará una guerra comercial generalizada, cuando las partes involucradas apliquen medidas compensatorias, como las ya anunciadas por la Unión Europa y China.

En segundo lugar, porque históricamente las guerras comerciales reducen el crecimiento y la generación de empleos. Estados Unidos sufre aún los coletazos de la crisis financiera de 2008, pero la superación final de esta podría darse de forma más expedita por el camino de la integración de mercados y no de un proteccionismo hirsuto.

Debe tomarse en cuenta que las medidas anunciadas, y las retaliaciones de otros países, afectarán de forma negativa a las empresas y trabajadores de las industrias usuarias del acero y el aluminio importado. Sectores como el automotriz, el de electrodomésticos y el de la construcción, se verán afectados por el aumento del costo de los insumos. Una medida semejante, no necesariamente conducirá a la expansión de la industria del acero y del aluminio. Construir una planta para ello, no se hace de un día para otro.

Vinculado al curso de la guerra

Los aranceles decretados por Trump no van a frenar el declive de la industria norteamericana. Esta medida ya se ensayó en otras oportunidades. Incluso en el pasado mes de enero, Trump gravó las importaciones de lavadoras eléctricas y páneles solares. Las guerras comerciales no alivian el curso de las economías capitalistas. Los conflictos comerciales terminan conduciendo a guerras armadas.

Este criterio fue ratificado la semana pasada por el analista Nick Beams, al asegurar que, el hecho de que Trump haya invocado la “seguridad nacional” como principio rector para la aplicación de las tarifas del acero y el aluminio, “apunta a que la dinámica de la guerra comercial en curso por Estados Unidos, está vinculada inextricablemente al ascenso del militarismo y al creciente peligro de guerra”.

Posición mendicante

En este nuevo forcejeo con la política imperial norteamericana, el mundo parece darle la espalda a las medidas proteccionistas de la Casa Blanca. En Santiago de Chile, el pasado 8 de marzo, once países de América Latina y de la cuenca del Pacífico, suscribieron el Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico, TPP, sin la presencia de Estados Unidos. Ya antes la Unión Europea suscribió un acuerdo de cooperación con Mercosur y ha firmado tratados bilaterales con Japón, Canadá y México|. China por su parte ha suscrito acuerdos bilaterales con varios países de América Latina, con la Celac, y a nivel global impulsa una vigorosa iniciativa comercial, conocida como la Ruta de la seda.

En este contexto, la situación de Colombia no es fácil. Washington eleva al país a la categoría del ‘mejor aliado’ de su política imperial en América Latina. Pero nominalmente, queda incluido entre las naciones que deberán pagar mayores aranceles por exportaciones de acero y aluminio, sin importar el tratamiento privilegiado que debería recibir en el marco del TLC con Estados Unidos.

Esto ha llevado a la cancillería y al Ministerio de Comercio Exterior, a asumir una posición mendicante ante la Casa Blanca, suplicando se exima a Colombia del pago de los nuevos aranceles. Una posición bastante distante de la actitud digna que debería tener el país, si practicara una política de defensa de su soberanía nacional y su independencia frente a los poderes imperiales.

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